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USC vs. Utah fearless prediction and game preview.

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Part of a continuing series examining the Power 5 and top Group of 5 teams for the 2018 college football season. 46 sacks and ranking fourth in red zone defense, overall it was a middle-of-the.
2018 USC Trojans Football Schedule Analysis – The non-conference dates are spread out, mainly because the Notre Dame game comes at the end of the rainbow. It’s in Los Angeles, but it means the Pac-12 season ends on November 17th.

Date: Saturday, October 20
Game Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
Network: Pac-12 Network

– All of the CFN Fearless Predictions
– Get Tickets For This Game

USC (4-2) vs. Utah (4-2) Game Preview

One Reason Why USC Will Win

The Trojans aren’t doing anything amazingly well, but they’re somehow able to come up with wins.

They were able to do just enough to survive Washington State, they slogged their way through Arizona, and they managed to shut down and beat up Colorado. There’s no real running game, and JT Daniels hasn’t been amazing yet, and …

They’re just winning. How?

The run defense has been fabulous in conference play so far.

Yeah, it shut down Bryce Love in the loss to Stanford, but whatever – who doesn’t do that?

Over the last three weeks, the Trojans haven’t allowed 100 rushing yards in a game, partly because they’re living behind the line. The Colorado offensive front has been strong so far, but it couldn’t handle anything the USC D was doing, giving up four sacks and 16 tackles for loss.

Top pass rusher Porter Gustin is done for the year after suffering a broken ankle, but the rest of the line should be able to pressure Tyler Huntley and get into the Ute backfield. As good as the Utah offense has been, the line is just soft enough for the USC defensive front to take over as the game goes on.

One Reason Why Utah Will Win

Huntley has been fabulous over the last few games.

He struggled in the losses to Washington and Washington State, but when he’s on, the offense works, and the Utes win. Utah is 4-0 when he throws for 199 yards or more, and 0-2 when he doesn’t.

Against Stanford and Arizona, he has connected on 31-of-40 passes for 400 yards and three scores with one pick. He’s taking off when needed, he’s making the right decisions, and the light has gone on.

Helping the cause has been a Utah defense that’s gone from okay to great, and now it leads the Pac-12 in total defense thanks to a dominant job being done by the run D.

USC’s ground game has been wildly inconsistent, and it’s not going to get going this week against a Ute defense that’s allowed a grand total of 114 yards over the last three games.

This puts the pressure on JT Daniels to run the offense, and he’s got to do it against the Ute pass rush that’s stepping it up, with nine sacks in the last two games.

Utah is playing well.

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What’s Going To Happen

It’s not quite the game for the Pac-12 South title, but … the winner of this game is probably going to play for the conference championship.

USC is doing a great job with its defense, and Daniels is getting better, but at home, Utah is going to play a sharp game with both lines taking over as the game goes on.

Huntley will struggle a bit – at least compared to the last few weeks – but the defense will pick up the slack. This will be the game and the win Ute fans have been waiting for this season.

– Week 7 CFN Experts Picks

Fearless Prediction & Line

Utah 30, USC 17
Line: Utah -6.5, o/u: 48
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 4

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For USC's players, as we noted last week, there are all sorts of questions for this summer and fall.

But as we also enumerated, there are at least 60 Trojans -- not counting this week's incoming freshmen -- who could offer answers. Talent will never be USC's problem, certainly not in the Pac-12. Not ever.

Of course, quarterback has to get sorted out. But other than O-line, where four starters return, there aren't really any questions without answers.

Other than this: In Season 3, does Clay Helton put it all together without having Sam Darnold to make Trojan magic. Clay has a turnaround Rose-Bowl-winning season and then a first-ever Pac-12-winning one on his resume. He's beaten Stanford twice in one year. And lost just a single Pac-12 game last fall.

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But that loss, to Washington State on the road in a Friday night ambush courtesy of the Pac-12 schedule-makers to which USC failed to object, was the first of three major embarrassments in 2017. The other two came at the hands of the only legitimate big-time opponents on the USC schedule -- Notre Dame and Ohio State -- and those two flat-out physically abused a non-competitive Trojans team.

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No question that Trojans team didn't have the answer those three games, despite having the talent, but also struggled big-time against the likes of Texas, Utah, UCLA and less so against Western Michigan, Cal, Colorado and Arizona.

Which is where the coaching comes in. Can it match USC's talent, with recruiting classes considered No. 3 in the nation the last five years behind only Alabama and Ohio State? One ranking, by CBSports.com, has Clay No. 31 among the 65 Power Five head coaches.

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And right in the middle of the Pac-12, where five new coaches are in place for the fall with another, Cal's Justin Wilcox in Year 2. That's half the league's coaches having turned over in just over a year. There are six ranked below Clay with Arizona State's Herm Edwards at No. 64, Oregon State's Jonathan Smith at No. 63, Oregon's Mario Cristobal at No. 54 -- all newbies -- with Wilcox at No. 53, Colorado's Mike MacIntyre at No. 42 and another newcomer, Arizona's Kevin Sumlin, at No. 36 to fill out the bottom half of the Pac.

At No. 31, Clay Helton, despite the Rose Bowl and Pac-12 title and a 21-6 mark and two major bowl games (Cotton Bowl last year), is at the bottom of the Pac-12's top half behind five league coaches not to mention two others USC will face in 2018 -- Texas' Tom Herman at No. 28 and Notre Dame's Brian Kelly at No. 27 -- with Utah's Kyle Whittingham (No. 25), Washington State's Mike Leach (No. 24), UCLA's Chip Kelly (No. 9), Stanford's David Shaw (No. 7) and Washington's Chris Petersen (No. 5).

Against that group, Clay was 4-2 last fall with the double over Stanford and the double-escape against Texas and Utah. But when it comes to coaching in 2018, should USC make it to the title game against UW and Petersen, against whom Clay is 1-0, opponents will have the sideline edge against USC in seven games, says CBS.

And it's hard to argue when you watched the difficulty the Trojans had in holding on to the football, blocking the run when they had to, protecting Darnold, avoiding penalties, giving up big plays, catching and returning punts, playing physical with a tough confidence, all that sort of stuff that really good coaches get their guys to do that USC couldn't seem to manage consistently.

That needs to change. And it could. But there are no guarantees. Here's our look at what the chances are that it will. The numbers and the talent certainly would allow for practices more challenging, more physical, more competitive than we've seen in recent seasons.

And as much as we agree with John McKay's 'it's not the plays but the players' line and 'It's not about the Xs and O's but the Jimmy's and Joe's,' it's also about the coaches.

*** NAME THE QUARTERBACK: In our only take on personnel, it does look like the coaching staff is more prepared to go with the new guy, incoming freshman JT Daniels, if he's the guy coming out of August than it was when Darnold was a redshirt freshman behind Max Browne. That there's no clear front-runner helps after Matt Fink's and Jack Sears' spring work and the lessons of holding off too long on naming Darnold after three games are still fresh in everybody's minds.

*** DID YOU SAY 'RUN FIRST'?: With three talented 215-pound tailbacks, it's music to anyone's ears who wants to see USC play with more physicality, more power, and obviously less reliance on an untested quarterback, to hear the talk of a 'run-first' offensive philosophy. And with a line coach, Tim Drevno, replacing the talented Deland McCullough as running backs coach, you have to hope that means a more integrated run-blocking approach replacing last season's often mis-matched line of scrimmage blocking. It appeared headed in the right direction in the spring with the focused play-calling of offensive coordinator Tee Martin. And the work of Drevno with O-line coach Neil Callaway. This has to involve everybody and for a team returning four starters on the O-line, USC should not look out-manned or be out-gunned up front this season if they get this right.

*** 4 TIGHT ENDS . . . AND A COACH: Adding Keary Colbert as USC's dedicated tight end coach can't help but help a deep position with four players -- five if you count walk-on Austin Applebee -- who can play. For this offense to get where it has to be, the tight ends must become a bigger factor this fall. That improvement has a better shot now.

*** BACK TO SPECIAL TEAMS FOR BAXTER: 2017 was not a good year for special teams coach John Baxter, whose guys couldn't run punts back, or even catch them. And kickoff returns weren't all that special either. Now Baxter, with no tight end responsibilities, can focus on figuring out how to use all the athletes he has to get both the return, cover and block teams going the way he has in past years. This has to be a positive especially with some of the return candidates having never done it in college and needing the kind of hands-on coaching Adoree' Jackson didn't. And with the number of athletes available, USC's cover teams could be special.

*** RUNNING IT SHOULD MAKE IT EASIER FOR WIDE RECEIVERS: If Tee can get the 'run-first' offense right, it should help his wide receivers' blocking and even more so, their ability to get open, especially deep, on play-action if defenses absolutely must respect the run. So maybe the best thing Tee can do is get the run game going. He does have plenty of guys who should be able to catch it including two legit No. 1's -- Tyler Vaughns and Michael Pittman.

*** ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION IN SECONDARY: No Jack Jones. No problem. Secondary coach Ronnie Bradford had a much more receptive group this spring without Jack and with Jonathan Lockett stepping in. There's a lot of talent back here and having Iman Marshall working on his technique the way he's been and All-American safety candidate Marvell Tell joined by a handful of young talent makes this a group where coaching really matters and having coordinator Clancy Pendergast pitching in with the safeties can't hurt, especially when it comes to the breakdowns that allowed 13 plays of 40 yards or more.

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*** LOTS OF LINEBACKERS: Clancy will also pitch in with the inside linebackers with Johnny Nansen taking the outside guys and again, as with the secondary, there's a lot of talent there with senior All-American Cameron Smith performing as a coach himself, it would seem. His Trojans led the nation in sacks, were No. 4 in the red zone and had 24 takeaways. This team with these numbers should be able to replicate the pluses of 2017 without the minuses. Getting Porter Gustin healthy and getting an explosive talent in newcomer Kana'i Mauga surely works with Clancy's 'play-on-the-other-side-of-the-line-of-scrimmage' philosophy.

*** D-LINE FIT FOR BKU: They're coming along together, a young D-line coach in Kenechi Udeze and a group with some serious young talent who can grow up together. Seems like a match made for some serious disruption if healthy. They have the size, the depth, the numbers and the talent.

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*** LOOPING BACK TO QB: Big challenge here for first-year quarterbacks coach Bryan Ellis who had some decent experience at Western Kentucky and seems to be building up a strong bond with his pupils but we'll know how that's going when USC hits the second and third week at Stanford and Texas with a young quarterback.

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You can follow me on Twitter at@dweber3440 or email me at weber@uscfootball.com.